Thanksgiving 2011

Hollywood Park Pick-6 Carryover

Race 3 - Muny/Lt. Hopeful

Race 4 - Teacher Teacher/Luckyvic

Race 5 - Tiz an Addiction/Dashing Daisy

Race 6 - A K Kama/Finegan Again

Race 7 - So Brilliant/Sheer Talent/Galex

Race 8 - Geniality/Tiz Trying Now

Now the trick is narrowing down the $248 ticket to something in the ballpark that I want ($8-$12).

Race 3 - The Mitchell invisible entry worries me. Muny is superior on the turf (6/13) while Lt. Hopeful is 0 for 10. Lt. Hopeful is the speed of the race and I'm hoping he won't wire the field. I'm singling Muny.

Race 4 - Luckyvic is a bomb that is the lone speed off a layoff. I don't think he can do it. Singling Teacher Teacher

Race 5 - While very suspicious that Dashing Daisy comes out of a 3rd in a Grade 3 and into a claimer, I'm going to single her.

Race 6 - Not crazy about this race so I'm going with both as Finegan Again has the speed and A K Kama is doing the big drop

Race 7 - I cannot single a one-race-wonder today. I'm going to go with all 3 choices since I've decided to have so many singles earlier.

Race 8 - Going to sign Geniality.

That's a $12 ticket and let's see what scratches. Good luck!

10/1/11 Changes

Check out the new layout and functions at Better Than Wall Street.

• Separate link to John's Horses to Watch
• Separate link to John's Horses to Watch results
• Conventent links to DRF, TwinSpires, etc.

We have new stats!

Check out the new individual stats that are part of every race now. For each horse that has enough starts, it is possible that there will be a "If Favorite" stat to go along with it. What this means is the stat mentioned comes in x% of the time when this trainer's horse is favored.

Example from 9/8/11 TDN race 1:

So So Smart had this in the extras:

 2^nd off layoff 
T/J: Starts: 49 Win%: 24.5
If Favorite T/J: Starts: 15 Win%: 46.7
2nd time vs winners: Starts: 77 Win%: 9.1
If Favorite 2nd time vs winners: Starts: 13 Win%: 38.5

This means that when Timothy Hamm runs a horse a second time vs. winners (the 2nd race after a maiden win), he wins 38.5% of the time. Compare that to his dismal 9.1% of the time for all his second times vs. winners. In this case, it worked as a good clue that this horse was ready to fire. He won by over 9 lengths at 2/5.

We're back!

A day late and a dollar short. This delay bugged us immensely and we are sorry.

Back to the races!

REDO - PLEASE BE PATIENT

Hi Folks,

Due to a programming error while trying to update the stats database, a bunch of stats were screwed up. Because of this, we need to clear and redo all the stats to make sure they are all good. The least amount of time this will take is two days which gets us to sometime Tuesday 9/6 if we are lucky. That means we hope to have Wednesday's files available sometime Wednesday morning at the latest. Cross your fingers. The good news is we will add some more stats on this stats run.

The other good news is in the mean time, John will still be posting his money making Horses to Watch.

Thanks for your understanding.

Your friends at Better Than Wall Street.